Of all of those who cover the NFL draft, one person reigns supreme: ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. While he doesn't bat 1.000 when it comes to his analysis (nobody does), the NFL draft would not be what it is without the 'Godfather' himself.
Having covered the draft since 1984, Kiper’s personality and analysis have stood the test of time. When he talks, those in the NFL and industry take note. Whether or not they agree with his analysis or if he winds up being correct in something as volatile as projecting draft prospects is one thing, but Kiper will continue to be a staple of those three days at the end of April for as long as he wants to keep working.
What did Kiper think of the job that Sean Payton, George Paton, and the Denver Broncos did this past weekend? Giving the Broncos a ho-hum grade of a C+, along with the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, and Tennessee Titans, and only ahead of the Atlanta Falcons, Kiper was not keen on the overall talent Denver walked away with in the draft.
Like we've heard from many other draft analysts, Kiper wasn't keen on Denver's first-round decision.
“A year after picking just three times in the top five rounds, the Broncos were without their Round 2 pick in this draft. I never felt confident they'd take a quarterback at No. 12; they had too many roster questions to reach for a passer, too many holes to fill. Right? I thought they'd either take the best available cornerback there or trade down to build up their capital. If they really wanted to add a passer to compete with Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson, they could have landed one later in Round 1.
"And I was wrong. Coach Sean Payton & Co. saw the run on quarterbacks -- five in the top 10 -- and stood pat, selecting Bo Nix (12). I wrote at length about the move on Thursday, but to sum it up: That's way too high for Nix, who put up massive numbers at Oregon but played in an offense in which he wasn't asked to go through read progressions. There's a ton of risk here. No one will remember that this pick was questioned if Nix becomes an immediate star, but Payton's Denver tenure is now tied to a passer with question marks," Kiper wrote.
It could be argued that Payton’s legacy now rests on making it work with Nix. The only quarterback selected in the first two rounds of Payton’s tenure at quarterback, it will be on him to make Nix look like a franchise-caliber pl;ayer and prove himself correct.
As Payton himself said, he's unconcerned with the media draft opinions in comparison to his own analysis. Payton touted his ability to identify quarterback talent while many others in the league struggle to do so. Only time will tell whether Payton’s declaration of greatness in quarterback evaluation is correct.
While the selection of Nix should have the highest weight on the Broncos' draft grade, Kiper seemed to like what Denver did in Rounds 3 through 5 this past weekend.
“Now, I did like the Broncos' pick of Troy Franklin (102), who was Nix's top pass-catcher at Oregon. I thought he'd go in Round 2, and instead they were able to get him on Day 3. Franklin and Nix's connection already is strong, as they combined for 1,383 yards and 14 scores a year ago. Denver had to give up Nos. 121, 136 and 207 for Nos. 102 and 235, though. Kris Abrams-Draine (145) is a high-risk, high-reward cornerback who can make a big play but also get beat deep. Edge rusher Jonah Elliss (76) had 12 sacks last season but is undersized at 6-2, 248 pounds. Audric Estime's (147) stock dropped after he ran a 4.71-second 40-yard dash at the combine, but his tape doesn't lie -- I think he can be a good running back at the next level," Kiper wrote.
Still, it's all about the quarterback position in the NFL. If one didn't like the selection of Nix at 12, grading the Broncos’ 2024 draft class is likely to be unfavorable.
“As I said, Payton's future is aligned with the sixth-best signal-caller in this draft, and we know there's not a great history of six QBs being stellar in one draft class. Likely half of those guys will end up having mediocre careers. For Payton's sake, he better hope it's not his guy or he won't last long with the Broncos," Kiper wrote.
Just as Russell Wilson’s legacy and potential Hall-of-Fame chances took a massive hit, Payton’s future chances at enshrinement in Canton might very well be intertwined with the success of the quarterback he tied himself to with this premium selection. If Nix hits, as Kiper said, “no one will remember this pick was questioned.”
However, if Nix flames out or ends up being just a serviceable starter and not a difference-making franchise quarterback, Payton and the Broncos will have likely earned these mediocre grades and criticism of their 2024 draft class.
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